Morgan Stanley sees global recession on the horizon

With no end in sight for the trade war between the U.S. and China, Morgan Stanley is worried that a global recession is coming. The bank said, “If talks stall, no deal is agreed upon and the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on the remaining ~US$300 billion of imports from China, we see the global economy heading towards recession.”

Ford to cut 7,000 jobs

Ford Motor Co said on Monday it will eliminate about 10% of its global salaried workforce, cutting about 7,000 jobs by the end of August as part of its larger restructuring effort. “To succeed in our competitive industry, and position Ford to win in a fast-changing future, we must reduce bureaucracy, empower managers, speed decision making, focus on the most valuable work and cut costs,” said Ford CEO Jim Hackett.

Inu Manak: Is the GOP still the party of free trade? No

“The U.S. Constitution vests Congress with the authority to regulate commerce, but over the years it has ceded that authority. If the current environment does not invigorate Republican members of Congress to work to take back this responsibility, it is hard to take claims that they value trade as a benefit for Americans seriously. Meanwhile, polls suggest that most Americans support free trade, and Democrats have surpassed Republicans as its most ardent supporters. We have yet to see whether Democrats will take up the mantle of free traders, but in the meantime, the Republicans certainly can no longer claim that title, as they continue to make excuses for the president’s actions. The party of free trade? No. More like the Grand Old Protectionists.”

Daily News Ed Board: No light at the end of Trump’s trade tunnel

“To minimize the damage, Trump pushed for another $15 billion in subsidies to farmers losing out because their products now cost more. That’s above the $12 billion he authorized last year when he launched the trade war. Which means Americans pay for the tariffs not once, but twice. First, consumers lose by paying more for Chinese products. Second, taxpayers pick up the tab by bailing out ‘great patriot’ farmers who absorb economic pain for the motherland. With each new round of economic penalties, Trump tells Americans the clouds will break and the light will soon shine through. Right after they pay more, and more, and more.”

The trade war is leaving lasting effects on the markets

Investors are dealing with a painful new reality that the trade war between the United States and China could last indefinitely. That anxiety spread across the stock markets on Monday, as investors around the world tried to divine the potential fallout to economic growth and corporate profits.

China retaliates against the US with tariffs of its own

China said it would raise tariffs on roughly $60 billion worth of U.S. imports, in response to the U.S. increasing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Because China’s entire imports from the United States are considerably less than $200 billion, it has not had the option of matching the United States dollar for dollar.

Trump may redefine poverty

The Trump administration may alter the way it determines the national poverty threshold, putting Americans living on the margins at risk of losing access to welfare programs. The possible move would involve changing how inflation is calculated in the “official poverty measure,” the White House Office of Management and Budget said in a regulatory filing on Monday. The formula has been used for decades to determine whether people qualify for certain federal programs and benefits.

The Dow’s terrible, no good, very bad day

The Dow had a lousy day. It fell 473 points, tumbling below 26,000 points. What happened? Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin indicated late yesterday that Donald Trump was dead serious about his tariff threat — and new import penalties will be imposed on China on Friday. So the market freaked out, falling steadily throughout the day.

Economists flee the Trump administration

Economists within the Department of Agriculture published research which showed how Trump’s trade policies hurt American farmers. This research caused the economists to receive heavy criticism from the Trump administration, which eventually led to their departure from the administration.

Morgan Stanley says ‘dasvidaniya’ to Russia

The American investment bank Morgan Stanley is officially leaving Russia, closing banking operations during the first quarter of 2020. Russia’s actions in Ukraine led to heavy sanctions, which made it hard for a bank like Morgan Stanley to operate in Russia. Russia’s seizing of Ukrainian territory is still negatively impacting the country and will likely do so for years.

Tom Wheeler: Fast technology vs. slow democracy

“By taking action to meet the problems of the industrial era…the nation’s leaders turned technology-driven challenges into American success stories. At the heart of such success was the creation of new public interest rules reflecting new business and technology realities. The resulting policies seem second nature to us today: antitrust enforcement, consumer protection, and worker protection. These new rules did not restructure the economy nor inhibit innovation, but they did put guardrails in place to temper the instinct to excess that is inherent in unsupervised capitalism. The result was unprecedented economic growth for all. Today, we need a similar reconsideration and restructuring of the rules of economic behavior.”

Dow takes a tumble, then rebounds, over trade

Trade war fears briefly returned to Wall Street, wiping out a chunk of the stock market’s recent surge. The Dow plunged 450 points at the open Monday morning after President Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China in a late Sunday tweet. The sudden escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions was unexpected, as Washington and Beijing were reportedly on the verge of a trade deal. By the end of the day, the market had rallied, closing 66 points down.

Dow futures drop over tariff threat

A sharp sell-off is expected on Wall Street this week after President Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. will hike tariffs on goods imported from China, casting doubt on recent optimism that the world’s two largest economies were close to a resolution to their trade battle. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures implied an opening decline of more than 450 points Sunday evening stateside. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures also pointed to declines for the two indexes at Monday’s open.

Unemployment rate falls to the lowest since 1969

U.S. job growth surged in April and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost 50-year low of 3.6 percent. “Employment gains are strong enough to dispel any immediate concerns over the health of the economy, while wage gains are not strong enough to force the Federal Reserve’s hand to tighten the policy stance,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research.

Trump shows Moore the door

In a tweet, President Trump said that Stephen Moore was withdrawing his name from consideration for a position on the Federal Reserve Board. This comes as a shock to many, including Moore who less than an hour before the tweet said that both he and the White House were “all in”. This all comes after the Senate signaled to the White House that Moore would not have the votes to be confirmed.

Dana Milbank: For Trump it’s always infrastructure week

“Poof! There goes another Infrastructure Week. For more than two years, Trump has been trying to roll out a giant infrastructure plan, as he promised during the campaign. At every step, the idea has faltered…With those and other false starts, “Infrastructure Week” has become a euphemism for the erratic nature of Trump’s presidency, which is in constant crisis but rarely gets stuff done. “

Stephen needs Moore votes

Sen. Joni Ernst became the first Republican senator to go on record as a “no” on Donald Trump’s Fed pick Stephen Moore today. She said it’s “very unlikely that I would support that person,” and “several” senators agree with her. She also said she shared her views with the White House. Her assessment was affirmed by Republican Sen. Tim Scott, who said Moore’s best hope was to barely squeak by.

Sen Chuck Grassley: ‘Trump’s tariffs end or his trade deal dies’

“A significant roadblock is the administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and retaliatory Canadian and Mexican tariffs on U.S. products. These levies are a tax on Americans, and they jeopardize USMCA’s prospects of passage in the Mexican Congress, Canadian Parliament, and U.S. Congress… If these tariffs aren’t lifted, USMCA is dead. There is no appetite in Congress to debate USMCA with these tariffs in place.”

Trump’s OPEC problem

Donald Trump’s claims to be in constant contact with OPEC leadership over oil prices appear to be in doubt. It is reported that Trump has not spoken to anyone at OPEC headquarters despite his various claims to be negotiating lower prices.

US sanctions Venezuela’s minister of foreign affairs

The Treasury Department sanctioned Venezuela’s foreign minister for allegedly exploiting the U.S. financial system to support what it considers the “illegitimate” regime of Nicolas Maduro. The move is aimed at increasing pressure on Maduro and senior officials in his government, which has been widely criticized for economic collapse and undermining democracy.

China’s green push

China’s Belt and Road Initiative must be green and sustainable, President Xi Jinping said in opening remarks at a summit on his grand strategy, adding that the massive infrastructure and trade plan would deliver “high-quality” growth for all.